Ad spending is on the mend following two years of falling revenues, according to a press release from SNL Kagan. The research firm cites spending in all categories -- with the exceptions of direct mail and newspapers -- is growing; tracking indicates that at the current rate, 2010 will see a 2.8 percent increase for total ad spending.
Despite warnings that the United States’ economic woes aren’t over -- including predictions of a double-dip recession (when gross domestic product growth recovers successively for a short before declining again) -- advertisers are promoting their products and services tenuously. It’s a welcome change. Revenues will eclipse $210 billion in 2010 after dropping 5.5 percent in 2008 and 15.6 percent in 2009. Automakers and related businesses have returned, and heated gubernatorial and mayoral races promise to fuel a busy fourth quarter for TV, radio, and cable providers.
SNL Kagan forecasts the market will continue to grow, surpassing $214 billion in 2011 and, if all factors remain stable, nearly $276.8 billion by 2019. SNL Kagan’s study, “Advertising Forecasts: U.S. Market Trends & Data for All Major Media,” shows projections and historical data.
Cable TV, online, and mobile advertising rates continue to rise, partially due to fragmentation of audiences and the targeting capabilities of these mediums, and SNL Kagan predicts the strongest growth “sectors” in 2011 likely will be mobile, online, and broadcast.
Unfortunately, newspapers again will mark the largest declines as people use interactive mediums to consume news. In fact, SNL Kagan indicates their predictions show it's unlikely that newspapers will recover. Although efforts to increase eyeballs by offering online versions have proven successful in many cases, daily paper revenues are expected to fall to $23 billion, half of what they were in 1999. While the decline shows signs of slowing, overall projections forecast that newspapers will fall short of their former glory days. If all things remain constant, the industry will lose another $500 million by 2019, dropping to $22.5 billion in overall revenues.
While I'm no economist, the past has shown me that the advertising industry usually is a decent indicator of where the economy is headed. Thus, for those still in the newspaper trade, now might be a good time to choose another place to read all about it.